Playbook

Catching AI Leaders Before Earnings

Feb 3, 2025

AI stocks illustration

Set the watchlist early

We build a 2-week runway watchlist of AI names with catalysts. We want liquidity, high institutional ownership, and options depth.

  • Screen for earnings in 10–14 days with rising IV
  • Prioritize tickers with >$500M avg daily volume
  • Track fund positioning via 13F and dark pool prints

Grades we assign

Each name is graded on growth durability, beat/miss history, and positioning. We avoid names with lumpy revenue and binary outcomes unless risk/reward is extreme.

  • Beat/Miss record and guide accuracy
  • Margin and FCF trajectory
  • Crowding: options skew, short interest, whale blocks
Options flow chart

Sizing and levels

We use defined risk tranches into earnings with clear invalidation. If guidance is the swing factor, we anchor to valuation bands and implied move vs history.